In a twist of fate that surely has the Saudi royal family biting their fingernails, oil behemoth Aramco has reported a hefty profit of $106.25 billion for 2024. That sounds impressive until you realize it’s a 12% dip from last year, and lower energy prices are throwing a wrench into the kingdom’s ambitious development dreams.

Picture this: Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the man with visions of futuristic mega-cities, has been feverishly constructing NEOM, a straight-line city popping up in the western desert. However, with his eye set on building swanky stadiums and lavish infrastructure ahead of the 2034 FIFA World Cup, he must now reckon with the reality of dwindling oil income.

Aramco’s revenues slid to $436 billion this year, a smidgen down from $440.88 billion in 2023. The oil giant’s own crystal ball predicts further struggles as OPEC+ works toward increasing production, potentially leading to even lower oil prices. Talk about a plot twist!

CEO Amin H. Nasser, ever the optimist, assures that Aramco is ready to pump out an additional 3 million barrels of crude oil a day. Every million barrels would inject a fresh $12 billion into the company’s coffers. However, let’s not kid ourselves: global inventory levels are nearing five-year lows, and geopolitical drama looms like a dark cloud.

With a market value of $1.74 trillion, Aramco still stands as one of the world’s richest companies, though not quite as rich as tech overlords like Apple or Amazon. It’s clear, though, that fewer dollars flowing from the oil pipeline means tougher times ahead for the Saudi monarchy.

Stock prices have seen better days, lingering just over $7 a share from a high of $8.71 within the past year. Not to mention, the anticipated $85.4 billion in dividends is bound to crimp Saudi Arabia’s budget further, squeezing their grandiose aspirations, a reality check the royal family is probably wishing they could ignore.

As geopolitics continue shaping the energy markets, it seems the kingdom is bracing itself for a wild ride. Only time will tell if they can adapt to this energy transition or if they’ll find themselves struggling to keep up with the world’s rapidly changing demands.