Stock markets are shaking in their boots, consumers are side-eyeing the economy, and economists are getting out their crystal balls to predict this year’s fate. It’s like watching a bunch of scared cats at a Halloween party. Just last month, everything seemed sunshine and rainbows, with stock prices peaking and consumer confidence soaring. Then, out of nowhere, the tech-heavy Nasdaq index decided to pull a 10% nosedive. Talk about a plot twist!

The mood shift can be traced back to none other than former President Donald Trump. He’s been playing tariff chess against the U.S’.s biggest trading partners, raising import taxes on steel and aluminum from Canada and dropping hints of more to come. It’s like he’s flipping a switch from optimism to doom with the fervor of a reality show contestant.

Despite the ominous vibes, most economists are chilling for now, with many saying the likelihood of a full-blown recession remains low. However, the specter of a downturn is lurking if these tariffs stick around longer than your roommate’s last bag of chips. Luke Tilley, a chief economist at M&T Bank, stated, “The longer the tariffs stay on, the more the risk of recession grows”. Sounds eerily like the title of a horror movie, doesn’t it?

So, are we on the brink of a recession? Not quite. While the Atlanta Fed’s economic tracker is showing a worrying trend (-2.4% growth projected), most experts believe we’re not headed for disaster, yet. Hurdles abound: trade uncertainties, rising prices, and jittery investors all conspire to keep us on the edge of our seats.

Larry Summers, a former treasury secretary, upped the drama by saying the odds of recession are currently sitting at a comfy 50-50. “We are getting the worst of both worlds , concerns about inflation and an economic downturn,” he posted on X. Super chill, right?

Historically, recessions hit after a shock to the economy, like the pandemic in 2020 or, shocking, an unsustainable housing bubble. While there’s no clear indication that tariffs will be that final straw, if Trump keeps this trade war shenanigan going, we may want to brace ourselves.

In the meantime, watch for those job numbers, if layoffs start trending up, we might want to re-evaluate our options on every brunch menu we encounter. Until then, let’s try not to scream into the void just yet.