In a curious twist, U.S. inflation took a breather last month, slowing for the first time since September. Shocking, right? The February consumer price index jumped 2.8% from the previous year, a dip from January’s more ominous 3%. Core prices (sans the drama of food and energy) crept up just 3.1%, the lowest since April 2021. Economists might be fanning themselves with joy, but let’s not throw a party just yet.

Ellen Zentner, a somewhat optimistic chief economic strategist at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, called this decline a “breath of fresh air”. But her enthusiasm comes with a warning: the Federal Reserve isn’t rushing to lower rates until they see how trade wars and immigration policies play out. So, hold your applause, folks.

Though we’d love to celebrate this momentary cool down, high inflation is still lurking like a bad ex at the party. To make matters worse, trade tariffs promise to keep prices inflated. Seriously, why is it that whenever we start seeing the light, someone drags us back into the shadows?

Airfares plummeted 4% in February. Yes, you read that right! Meanwhile, rental price increases slowed down, and even the price of new cars took a dip. Grocery prices? They held steady from January, always decent news until you remember the cost of eggs, which skyrocketed 10% in just one month. Thank avian flu for that little spike. Eggs now cost around $5.90 a dozen, nearly 60% more than a year ago. Forget brunch; just opt for some toast or, better yet, ‘freegan’ your way through grocery scraps!

Despite the temporary dip, forecasters sit on edge waiting for tariffs to kick in like an unwanted hangover. Trump’s unpredictability means lingering tariffs from abroad could keep inflation perky (and high). According to economists, these duties could boost the average U.S. tariff rate to heights not seen since the Great Depression, costing households up to $3,400.

So, as prices ride this rollercoaster up and down, our wallets prepare for the reality that inflation might stay high a while longer. In a world where prices fluctuate with the grace of a college freshman on a Saturday night, we hang our hats on cautious optimism… like always. Let’s just hope the Fed pulls the right strings to avoid a budgetary train wreck.