The Golden State’s housing crisis is so wild, even the experts can’t decide exactly how screwed we are.

Imagine trying to figure out how much water you need to fill a swimming pool, but every friend gives you a different amount. That’s basically California’s housing shortage in a nutshell.

The Numbers Game

Researchers and policy wonks have been throwing around housing shortage estimates that range from a measly 56,000 to a whopping 3.5 million units. Talk about a math problem that would make your high school algebra teacher weep.

The Legislative Analyst’s Office kicked things off in 2015 with a cool 2.7 million missing units. Not to be outdone, McKinsey consulting swooped in with 3.5 million - a number that even Governor Newsom was hyping up during his campaign.

The Real Problem

But here’s the tea: whether it’s 56,000 or 3.5 million, the message is clear. California’s housing market is more broken than your friend’s ancient iPhone that still runs iOS 6.

Researchers basically admit that counting housing shortages is part science, part wild guesswork. They’re looking at vacancy rates, “pent-up demand” (aka young adults still living with parents), and income levels to piece together this complex puzzle.

The Bottom Line

One thing everyone agrees on? We need way more housing, and we need it yesterday. From San Francisco to Los Angeles, the dream of affordable housing feels more impossible than getting a rent-controlled apartment in the Mission District.