Last week, President Trump decided to shake things up by threatening a mind-boggling 200% tariff on European wines, Champagne, and other beloved alcoholic beverages. Cheers? Not so fast.

While he tweeted that this move would be a boon for U.S. wine businesses, many California winemakers are feeling more anxiety than euphoria. They’re caught in a precarious situation, teetering between potential sales spikes and impending doom.

John Williams, founder of Frog’s Leap Winery in Napa Valley, has been in the wine-making game for 45 years and his outlook is not rosy. He says, “This is not good for our industry in general”. And he’s right to be worried. Many wineries have already been bruised by devastating wildfires and droughts, not to mention the dwindling appetite for wine among younger consumers who’d rather sip kombucha than toast with a nice Bordeaux.

Now, let’s unpack this tariff situation. Should it come to pass, not only would European wines become a luxury for most average consumers, but alcohol distributors, those crucial middlemen, could also feel the pinch. They rely heavily on a stable market, and tariffs could disrupt their operations. Talk about an unwelcome headache for those who just wanted a decent glass of Cabernet with dinner!

And here’s a juicy tidbit: the European Union exports tons of wine to the United States, and increasing prices could make those fancy dinners out a lot less budget-friendly. Imagine paying twice as much for that French bubbly you treat yourself to for special occasions. Ugh.

Tensions are already high between the U.S. and EU due to other escalating trade disputes, including a 25% tariff on steel and aluminum. It’s a mess, and California winemakers could find themselves as collateral damage in this tit-for-tat tariff battle.

On the other hand, there are some winemakers like Bruce Lundquist, co-founder of Rack & Riddle, who see a silver lining. He thinks a tariff could boost local interest in American-made sparkling wines. “Nobody wants a trade war,” he notes, but perhaps a little domestic spotlight won’t hurt?

However, the looming question remains: will we really let Trump ruin our drinking habits? Only time will tell, but one thing is certain, if you’re a fan of bubbly and European reds, now might be the time to stock up before those prices skyrocket.

Here’s hoping cooler heads prevail before we have to toast with overpriced bottles!